New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs
All New York Yankees predictions · All Chicago Cubs predictions
MLB · Friday, July 31, 2026 · 2:21 PM · Final: 2-0
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Yankees | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 |
| BetRivers | +143 | -162 |
| DraftKings | +139 | -168 |
| ESPN BET | +140 | -165 |
| Fanatics | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +148 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +145 | -155 |
| Caesars | +140 | -165 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Yankees | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +120 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -159 | −1.5 +130 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -144 | −1.5 +119 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +130 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +125 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -152 | −1.5 +126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -140 | −1.5 +130 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -140 | −1.5 +118 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
| BetRivers | 9 +102 | 9 -121 |
| DraftKings | 9 +102 | 9 -122 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | 9 -102 | 9 -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 +105 |
| Caesars | 9 +105 | 9 -125 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Yankees | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 40.3% | 60.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Markets average | 39.5% | 60.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.