THURSDAY, JULY 30, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
MLB · Friday, July 31, 2026 · 6:11 PM
The model's call
Pittsburgh Pirates to win
Model confidence 53.5%
Books consensus 53.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -130 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -126 | +104 |
| FanDuel | -126 | +108 |
| Caesars | -125 | +105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 55.6% | 48.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| Polymarket contract price | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| Markets average | 53.7% | 46.3% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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