Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions · All Cincinnati Reds predictions
MLB · Friday, July 31, 2026 · 6:11 PM · Final: 7-8
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -130 | +105 |
| BetRivers | -127 | +112 |
| DraftKings | -127 | +105 |
| ESPN BET | -130 | +110 |
| Fanatics | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -118 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -125 | +115 |
| Caesars | -125 | +105 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Pirates | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -160 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +125 | +1.5 -155 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -157 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -165 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -160 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +136 | +1.5 -164 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -150 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -165 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -102 | 8 -118 |
| BetRivers | 8 -106 | 8 -114 |
| DraftKings | 8 -102 | 8 -118 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -122 | 7.5 +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 +105 |
| Caesars | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 54.1% | 46.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Markets average | 54.0% | 46.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.