Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles
All Philadelphia Phillies predictions · All Baltimore Orioles predictions
MLB · Friday, July 31, 2026 · 7:06 PM · Final: 4-6
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| BetRivers | +106 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +100 | -121 |
| ESPN BET | +100 | -120 |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +106 | -114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +105 | -115 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Phillies | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| BetRivers | +1 -148 | −1 +120 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +166 | +1.5 -202 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -190 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +160 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +158 | +1.5 -192 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +170 | +1.5 -180 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +170 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -102 | 9 -118 |
| BetRivers | 9 -106 | 9 -114 |
| DraftKings | 9 -105 | 9 -114 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -135 | 8.5 +115 |
| Fanatics | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
| FanDuel | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +115 |
| Caesars | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Philadelphia Phillies | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.5% | 53.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Markets average | 47.5% | 52.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.