FRIDAY, JULY 31, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles
MLB · Friday, July 31, 2026 · 7:06 PM
The model's call
Baltimore Orioles to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| BetRivers | +105 | -124 |
| DraftKings | -105 | -114 |
| ESPN BET | +100 | -120 |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | +100 | -118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | -105 | -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Philadelphia Phillies | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.8% | 53.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Markets average | 47.5% | 52.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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