FRIDAY, JULY 31, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles
MLB · Saturday, August 1, 2026 · 7:06 PM
The model's call
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Model confidence 56.3%
Books consensus 56.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -145 | +118 |
| DraftKings | -141 | +117 |
| FanDuel | -136 | +126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -135 | +125 |
| Caesars | -140 | +118 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Philadelphia Phillies | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 57.4% | 44.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Markets average | 56.5% | 43.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.