New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs
All New York Yankees predictions · All Chicago Cubs predictions
MLB · Saturday, August 1, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 2-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Yankees | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| BetRivers | +110 | -130 |
| DraftKings | +108 | -130 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +110 | -118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +110 | -120 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Yankees | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +180 | +1.5 -235 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +195 | +1.5 -275 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +170 | +1.5 -208 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +175 | +1.5 -225 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -235 | −1.5 +185 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +184 | +1.5 -225 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +190 | +1.5 -200 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +180 | +1.5 -220 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 6 -118 | 6 -102 |
| BetRivers | 6 -117 | 6 -103 |
| DraftKings | 6 -120 | 6 +100 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -130 |
| Fanatics | 6 -115 | 6 -105 |
| FanDuel | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -120 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Yankees | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 47.6% | 54.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Markets average | 47.0% | 53.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.