Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles
All Philadelphia Phillies predictions · All Baltimore Orioles predictions
MLB · Sunday, August 2, 2026 · 1:36 PM · Final: 8-0
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -155 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -139 | +123 |
| DraftKings | -150 | +124 |
| ESPN BET | -145 | +125 |
| Fanatics | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -138 | +128 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -140 | +130 |
| Caesars | -145 | +122 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Phillies | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -135 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +120 | +1.5 -148 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +114 | +1.5 -137 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +120 | +1.5 -145 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +115 | +1.5 -140 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +115 | +1.5 -138 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +125 | +1.5 -135 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +115 | +1.5 -135 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
| BetRivers | 8 -106 | 8 -114 |
| DraftKings | 8 -108 | 8 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -125 | 7.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| FanDuel | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +110 |
| Caesars | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Philadelphia Phillies | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 58.0% | 43.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| Polymarket contract price | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| Markets average | 57.2% | 42.8% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.