SATURDAY, AUGUST 1, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
MLB · Sunday, August 2, 2026 · 1:41 PM
The model's call
Cincinnati Reds to win
Model confidence 58.0%
Books consensus 58.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +124 | -150 |
| ESPN BET | +130 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +134 | -144 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +135 | -145 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 42.6% | 59.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Markets average | 43.0% | 57.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.