Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs

All New York Yankees predictions · All Chicago Cubs predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 2, 2026 · 2:21 PM · Final: 2-1

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Result New York Yankees won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New York YankeesChicago Cubs
BetMGM -110 -110
BetRivers -120 +105
DraftKings -115 -105
ESPN BET -120 +100
Fanatics -120 +100
FanDuel -116 +106
Hard Rock Bet -115 +105
Caesars -115 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New York YankeesChicago Cubs
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 52.2% 47.8%
Best book price incl. vig 52.4% 48.5%
Kalshi contract price 52.5% 47.5%
Polymarket contract price 52.5% 47.5%
Markets average 52.5% 47.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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