Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
All Washington Nationals predictions · All Philadelphia Phillies predictions
MLB · Monday, August 3, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 3-6
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| BetRivers | +133 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +134 | -162 |
| ESPN BET | +135 | -155 |
| Fanatics | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +142 | -154 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +140 | -150 |
| Caesars | +142 | -152 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Nationals | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -162 | −1.5 +133 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -157 | −1.5 +130 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +135 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +132 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +140 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -118 | 9 -102 |
| BetRivers | 9 -112 | 9 -108 |
| DraftKings | 9 -119 | 9 -102 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 +115 | 9.5 -135 |
| Fanatics | 9 -120 | 9 +100 |
| FanDuel | 9 -115 | 9 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 +120 | 9.5 -130 |
| Caesars | 9 -120 | 9 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 41.3% | 60.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Markets average | 41.0% | 59.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.