Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

All Washington Nationals predictions · All Philadelphia Phillies predictions

MLB · Monday, August 3, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 3-6

The model's call
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Model confidence 59.1%
Books consensus 59.1%
Result Philadelphia Phillies won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies
BetMGM +135 -160
BetRivers +133 -152
DraftKings +134 -162
ESPN BET +135 -155
Fanatics +130 -155
FanDuel +142 -154
Hard Rock Bet +140 -150
Caesars +142 -152

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 40.9% 59.1%
Best book price incl. vig 41.3% 60.0%
Kalshi contract price 40.5% 59.5%
Polymarket contract price 41.5% 58.5%
Markets average 41.0% 59.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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