SUNDAY, AUGUST 2, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
MLB · Monday, August 3, 2026 · 6:41 PM
The model's call
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Model confidence 57.5%
Books consensus 57.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| ESPN BET | +125 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +134 | -144 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +135 | -145 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 42.6% | 59.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| Markets average | 41.7% | 58.3% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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