Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Athletics at Cincinnati Reds

All Athletics predictions · All Cincinnati Reds predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 6:40 PM · Final: 4-5

The model's call
Cincinnati Reds to win
Model confidence 55.4%
Books consensus 55.4%
Result Cincinnati Reds won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book AthleticsCincinnati Reds
BetMGM +115 -140
BetRivers +116 -132
DraftKings +121 -129
ESPN BET +115 -135
Fanatics +115 -140
FanDuel +120 -128
Hard Rock Bet +120 -130
Caesars +122 -132

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue AthleticsCincinnati Reds
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 44.6% 55.4%
Best book price incl. vig 45.0% 56.1%
Kalshi contract price 44.5% 55.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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