New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians
All New York Mets predictions · All Cleveland Guardians predictions
MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 6-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Mets | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| BetRivers | +120 | -136 |
| DraftKings | +120 | -128 |
| ESPN BET | +115 | -135 |
| Fanatics | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +116 | -126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +120 | -130 |
| Caesars | +125 | -135 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Mets | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -195 | −1.5 +155 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -193 | −1.5 +158 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +160 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -194 | −1.5 +160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +170 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +158 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -109 | 7.5 -110 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -102 | 7.5 -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -115 |
| Caesars | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Mets | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 44.4% | 55.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 44.1% | 55.9% |
| Polymarket contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Markets average | 43.8% | 56.2% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.