New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians
MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 6:40 PM
The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 55.5%
Books consensus 55.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | New York Mets | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 |
| DraftKings | +114 | -137 |
| Fanatics | +115 | -140 |
| Caesars | +120 | -130 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | New York Mets | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 45.5% | 56.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| Polymarket contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Markets average | 43.9% | 56.1% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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