Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
All Washington Nationals predictions · All Philadelphia Phillies predictions
MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 6:42 PM · Final: 0-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +260 | -325 |
| BetRivers | +295 | -345 |
| DraftKings | +282 | -304 |
| ESPN BET | +260 | -320 |
| Fanatics | +250 | -320 |
| FanDuel | +260 | -300 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +275 | -300 |
| Caesars | +265 | -310 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Nationals | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +2.5 -140 | −2.5 +115 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 +123 | −1.5 -150 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 +119 | −1.5 -144 |
| ESPN BET | +2.5 -135 | −2.5 +115 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 +120 | −1.5 -145 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 +116 | −1.5 -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -130 | −2.5 +120 |
| Caesars | +1.5 +122 | −1.5 -145 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -104 |
| DraftKings | 9 +100 | 9 -121 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -130 | 8.5 +110 |
| Fanatics | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -124 | 8.5 +102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +110 |
| Caesars | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 26.6% | 73.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 25.3% | 75.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 26.5% | 73.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 25.5% | 74.5% |
| Markets average | 26.0% | 74.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.