Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

All Washington Nationals predictions · All Philadelphia Phillies predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 6:42 PM · Final: 0-5

The model's call
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Model confidence 73.4%
Books consensus 73.4%
Result Philadelphia Phillies won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies
BetMGM +260 -325
BetRivers +295 -345
DraftKings +282 -304
ESPN BET +260 -320
Fanatics +250 -320
FanDuel +260 -300
Hard Rock Bet +275 -300
Caesars +265 -310

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 26.6% 73.4%
Best book price incl. vig 25.3% 75.0%
Kalshi contract price 26.5% 73.5%
Polymarket contract price 25.5% 74.5%
Markets average 26.0% 74.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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