New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians
All New York Mets predictions · All Cleveland Guardians predictions
MLB · Wednesday, August 5, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 6-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Mets | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| BetRivers | -104 | -110 |
| DraftKings | +101 | -107 |
| ESPN BET | -105 | -115 |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | +100 | -108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -110 |
| Caesars | +101 | -111 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Mets | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -195 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -188 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -190 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +158 | +1.5 -192 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +170 | +1.5 -180 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +158 | +1.5 -190 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -113 | 7.5 -107 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 -109 | 7.5 -111 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -112 | 7.5 -108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Mets | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 49.8% | 51.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Markets average | 49.2% | 50.8% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.