Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
All Washington Nationals predictions · All Philadelphia Phillies predictions
MLB · Wednesday, August 5, 2026 · 7:05 PM · Final: 10-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +170 | -210 |
| BetRivers | +175 | -205 |
| DraftKings | +175 | -187 |
| ESPN BET | +165 | -195 |
| Fanatics | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +182 | -198 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +180 | -190 |
| Caesars | +175 | -195 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Nationals | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +105 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -122 | −1.5 +100 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -130 | −1.5 +108 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -120 | −1.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +105 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -122 | −1.5 +102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -120 | −1.5 +110 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +105 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9.5 -115 | 9.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 9.5 -107 | 9.5 -113 |
| DraftKings | 9.5 -111 | 9.5 -109 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 -115 | 9.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 -105 | 9.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 35.4% | 64.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 35.5% | 65.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 35.1% | 64.8% |
| Polymarket contract price | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| Markets average | 35.3% | 64.7% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.