Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Athletics at Cincinnati Reds

All Athletics predictions · All Cincinnati Reds predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 5, 2026 · 6:40 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
Cincinnati Reds to win
Model confidence 60.5%
Books consensus 60.5%
Result Cincinnati Reds won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book AthleticsCincinnati Reds
BetMGM +145 -175
BetRivers +138 -157
DraftKings +154 -164
ESPN BET +143 -162
Fanatics +140 -170
FanDuel +148 -160
Hard Rock Bet +150 -160
Caesars +150 -160

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue AthleticsCincinnati Reds
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.5% 60.5%
Best book price incl. vig 39.4% 61.1%
Kalshi contract price 39.5% 60.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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