Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians

All New York Mets predictions · All Cleveland Guardians predictions

MLB · Thursday, August 6, 2026 · 1:11 PM · Final: 13-6

The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 53.9%
Books consensus 53.9%
Result New York Mets won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New York MetsCleveland Guardians
BetMGM +105 -130
BetRivers +106 -121
DraftKings +114 -123
ESPN BET +116 -131
Fanatics +100 -120
FanDuel +110 -120
Hard Rock Bet +115 -125
Caesars +116 -126

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New York MetsCleveland Guardians
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 46.1% 53.9%
Best book price incl. vig 46.3% 54.5%
Kalshi contract price 46.0% 54.0%
Polymarket contract price 46.5% 53.5%
Markets average 46.3% 53.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record