New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians
All New York Mets predictions · All Cleveland Guardians predictions
MLB · Thursday, August 6, 2026 · 1:11 PM · Final: 13-6
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Mets | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -130 |
| BetRivers | +106 | -121 |
| DraftKings | +114 | -123 |
| ESPN BET | +116 | -131 |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +110 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +115 | -125 |
| Caesars | +116 | -126 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Mets | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +170 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +175 | +1.5 -230 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -219 | −1.5 +178 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -225 | −1.5 +175 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -215 | −1.5 +170 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +184 | +1.5 -225 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -195 | −1.5 +185 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +175 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7 -110 | 7 -110 |
| BetRivers | 7 -115 | 7 -105 |
| DraftKings | 7 -108 | 7 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 +120 | 7.5 -155 |
| Fanatics | 7 -115 | 7 -105 |
| FanDuel | 7 -110 | 7 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +120 | 7.5 -130 |
| Caesars | 7 -105 | 7 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Mets | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 46.3% | 54.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 46.3% | 53.8% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.