Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

All Washington Nationals predictions · All Philadelphia Phillies predictions

MLB · Thursday, August 6, 2026 · 6:06 PM · Final: 3-7

The model's call
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Model confidence 75.0%
Books consensus 75.0%
Result Philadelphia Phillies won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies
BetMGM +280 -350
BetRivers +285 -335
DraftKings +298 -326
ESPN BET +296 -350
Fanatics +265 -340
FanDuel +280 -320
Hard Rock Bet +300 -325
Caesars +295 -350

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 25.0% 75.0%
Best book price incl. vig 25.0% 76.2%
Kalshi contract price 24.5% 75.5%
Polymarket contract price 25.5% 74.5%
Markets average 25.0% 75.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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