Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
MLB · Thursday, August 6, 2026 · 6:06 PM
The model's call
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Model confidence 74.0%
Books consensus 74.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | +270 | -340 |
| FanDuel | +270 | -335 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +275 | -300 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 26.0% | 74.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 26.7% | 75.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 26.2% | 73.8% |
| Polymarket contract price | 25.5% | 74.5% |
| Markets average | 25.9% | 74.2% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.