Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
All Washington Nationals predictions · All Philadelphia Phillies predictions
MLB · Thursday, August 6, 2026 · 6:06 PM · Final: 3-7
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +280 | -350 |
| BetRivers | +285 | -335 |
| DraftKings | +298 | -326 |
| ESPN BET | +296 | -350 |
| Fanatics | +265 | -340 |
| FanDuel | +280 | -320 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +300 | -325 |
| Caesars | +295 | -350 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Nationals | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +2.5 -115 | −2.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -121 | −2.5 +100 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 +130 | −1.5 -157 |
| ESPN BET | +2.5 -125 | −2.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 +130 | −1.5 -160 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 +122 | −1.5 -146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -120 | −2.5 +110 |
| Caesars | +1.5 +135 | −1.5 -160 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -102 | 9 -118 |
| BetRivers | 9 -103 | 9 -117 |
| DraftKings | 9 -106 | 9 -113 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -135 | 8.5 +115 |
| Fanatics | 9 -110 | 9 -110 |
| FanDuel | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -130 | 8.5 +120 |
| Caesars | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 25.0% | 76.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 24.5% | 75.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 25.5% | 74.5% |
| Markets average | 25.0% | 75.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.