Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners

All Tampa Bay Rays predictions · All Seattle Mariners predictions

MLB · Friday, August 7, 2026 · 9:46 PM · Final: 2-1

The model's call
Seattle Mariners to win
Model confidence 51.8%
Books consensus 51.8%
Result Tampa Bay Rays won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Tampa Bay RaysSeattle Mariners
BetMGM -102 -118
BetRivers +100 -114
DraftKings +104 -112
ESPN BET +100 -120
Fanatics +100 -120
FanDuel +102 -112
Hard Rock Bet +100 -110
Caesars +105 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Tampa Bay RaysSeattle Mariners
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 48.2% 51.8%
Best book price incl. vig 48.8% 52.4%
Kalshi contract price 48.0% 52.0%
Polymarket contract price 47.5% 52.5%
Markets average 47.7% 52.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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