New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
All New York Mets predictions · All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions
MLB · Friday, August 7, 2026 · 6:42 PM · Final: 6-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Mets | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 |
| BetRivers | +114 | -130 |
| DraftKings | +120 | -129 |
| ESPN BET | +115 | -135 |
| Fanatics | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +120 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +120 | -130 |
| Caesars | +117 | -127 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Mets | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +150 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +163 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -181 | −1.5 +149 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +150 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +145 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -182 | −1.5 +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +155 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -178 | −1.5 +150 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| BetRivers | 8 -117 | 8 -104 |
| DraftKings | 8 -119 | 8 -101 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 +102 | 8.5 -124 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -115 |
| Caesars | 8 -120 | 8 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Mets | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 45.5% | 55.9% |
| Kalshi contract price | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Markets average | 44.5% | 55.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.