New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
MLB · Friday, August 7, 2026 · 6:41 PM
The model's call
Pittsburgh Pirates to win
Model confidence 56.4%
Books consensus 56.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | New York Mets | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | +118 | -141 |
| ESPN BET | +120 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +120 | -142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +125 | -135 |
| Caesars | +130 | -140 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | New York Mets | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 43.6% | 56.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 43.5% | 57.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| Polymarket contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Markets average | 43.3% | 56.7% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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