Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals
All Cincinnati Reds predictions · All Washington Nationals predictions
MLB · Friday, August 7, 2026 · 7:46 PM · Final: 3-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Cincinnati Reds | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +104 | -118 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -121 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +110 | -118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +110 | -120 |
| Caesars | +110 | -121 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Reds | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -210 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -215 | −1.5 +170 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -195 | −1.5 +160 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +170 | +1.5 -215 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +172 | +1.5 -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +170 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -195 | −1.5 +162 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -118 | 8.5 -102 |
| BetRivers | 9 +102 | 9 -121 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -116 | 8.5 -104 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -118 | 8.5 -104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 +105 |
| Caesars | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Cincinnati Reds | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 46.9% | 54.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 46.5% | 53.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.