Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Athletics at Boston Red Sox

All Athletics predictions · All Boston Red Sox predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 7-3

The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 71.2%
Books consensus 71.2%
Result Athletics won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book AthleticsBoston Red Sox
BetMGM +230 -285
BetRivers +235 -275
DraftKings +242 -263
ESPN BET +230 -280
Fanatics +225 -280
FanDuel +240 -270
Hard Rock Bet +250 -260
Caesars +250 -290

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue AthleticsBoston Red Sox
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 28.8% 71.2%
Best book price incl. vig 28.6% 72.2%
Kalshi contract price 28.5% 71.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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