Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates

All New York Mets predictions · All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 0-9

The model's call
Pittsburgh Pirates to win
Model confidence 52.3%
Books consensus 52.3%
Result Pittsburgh Pirates won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New York MetsPittsburgh Pirates
BetMGM +100 -120
BetRivers +105 -120
DraftKings +117 -125
ESPN BET +100 -120
Fanatics +100 -120
FanDuel +106 -114
Hard Rock Bet +105 -115
Caesars +108 -119

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New York MetsPittsburgh Pirates
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 47.7% 52.3%
Best book price incl. vig 46.1% 53.3%
Kalshi contract price 47.5% 52.5%
Polymarket contract price 47.5% 52.5%
Markets average 47.5% 52.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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