Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals

All Cincinnati Reds predictions · All Washington Nationals predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 6:46 PM · Final: 2-8

The model's call
Cincinnati Reds to win
Model confidence 55.6%
Books consensus 55.6%
Result Washington Nationals won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Cincinnati RedsWashington Nationals
BetMGM -140 +115
BetRivers -130 +114
DraftKings -133 +124
ESPN BET -135 +115
Fanatics -140 +115
FanDuel -130 +122
Hard Rock Bet -135 +125
Caesars -135 +125

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Cincinnati RedsWashington Nationals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 55.6% 44.4%
Best book price incl. vig 56.5% 44.4%
Kalshi contract price 56.5% 43.5%
Polymarket contract price 55.5% 44.5%
Markets average 56.0% 44.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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