Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners

All Tampa Bay Rays predictions · All Seattle Mariners predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 9:51 PM · Final: 3-2

The model's call
Seattle Mariners to win
Model confidence 56.1%
Books consensus 56.1%
Result Tampa Bay Rays won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Tampa Bay RaysSeattle Mariners
BetMGM +118 -140
BetRivers +115 -130
DraftKings +125 -134
ESPN BET +120 -140
Fanatics +110 -130
FanDuel +126 -136
Hard Rock Bet +120 -130
Caesars +126 -136

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Tampa Bay RaysSeattle Mariners
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 43.9% 56.1%
Best book price incl. vig 44.2% 56.5%
Kalshi contract price 45.5% 54.5%
Polymarket contract price 45.5% 54.5%
Markets average 45.5% 54.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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