New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
All New York Mets predictions · All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions
MLB · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 1:37 PM · Final: 11-1
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Mets | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 |
| BetRivers | +132 | -157 |
| DraftKings | +130 | -140 |
| ESPN BET | +125 | -145 |
| Fanatics | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +132 | -142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +130 | -140 |
| Caesars | +132 | -142 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Mets | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +145 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -162 | −1.5 +132 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +144 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +150 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +140 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +150 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +143 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -117 |
| DraftKings | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -102 | 8.5 -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -115 |
| Caesars | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Mets | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 43.1% | 58.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Markets average | 42.5% | 57.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.