Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals
All Cincinnati Reds predictions · All Washington Nationals predictions
MLB · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 12:16 PM · Final: 1-7
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Cincinnati Reds | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -102 | -118 |
| BetRivers | -108 | -106 |
| DraftKings | +102 | -110 |
| ESPN BET | +100 | -120 |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +104 | -114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +105 | -115 |
| Caesars | +105 | -115 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Reds | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -186 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +148 | +1.5 -180 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -190 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +168 | +1.5 -205 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +170 | +1.5 -180 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +158 | +1.5 -190 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -118 | 9 -102 |
| BetRivers | 9 -113 | 9 -106 |
| DraftKings | 9.5 -101 | 9.5 -120 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 +100 | 9.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | 9 -120 | 9 +100 |
| FanDuel | 9.5 +102 | 9.5 -124 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 +110 | 9.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 9 -115 | 9 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Cincinnati Reds | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.8% | 51.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Markets average | 48.5% | 51.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.