Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Athletics at Boston Red Sox

MLB · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 1:35 PM

The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 69.9%
Books consensus 69.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book AthleticsBoston Red Sox
BetMGM +220 -275
BetRivers +220 -265
DraftKings +230 -249
ESPN BET +215 -260
Fanatics +200 -245
FanDuel +215 -235
Hard Rock Bet +230 -240
Caesars +225 -255

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue AthleticsBoston Red Sox
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 30.1% 69.9%
Best book price incl. vig 30.3% 70.1%
Kalshi contract price 29.5% 70.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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