Athletics at Boston Red Sox
MLB · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 1:35 PM
The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 69.9%
Books consensus 69.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Athletics | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +220 | -275 |
| BetRivers | +220 | -265 |
| DraftKings | +230 | -249 |
| ESPN BET | +215 | -260 |
| Fanatics | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +215 | -235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +230 | -240 |
| Caesars | +225 | -255 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Athletics | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 30.1% | 69.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 30.3% | 70.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 29.5% | 70.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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