Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Athletics at Boston Red Sox

All Athletics predictions · All Boston Red Sox predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 1:36 PM · Final: 4-3

The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 66.7%
Books consensus 66.7%
Result Athletics won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book AthleticsBoston Red Sox
BetMGM +185 -225
BetRivers +195 -225
DraftKings +195 -211
ESPN BET +190 -225
Fanatics +180 -220
FanDuel +190 -205
Hard Rock Bet +200 -210
Caesars +198 -218

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue AthleticsBoston Red Sox
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 33.3% 66.7%
Best book price incl. vig 33.3% 67.2%
Kalshi contract price 31.2% 68.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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