Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners
All Tampa Bay Rays predictions · All Seattle Mariners predictions
MLB · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 4-1
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Tampa Bay Rays | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| BetRivers | -105 | -109 |
| DraftKings | -104 | -104 |
| ESPN BET | -110 | -110 |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | -102 | -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -105 |
| Caesars | -107 | -103 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Rays | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -205 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -196 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -200 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +168 | +1.5 -205 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +170 | +1.5 -180 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -225 | −1.5 +185 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -125 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 +102 | 7.5 -122 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 +104 | 7.5 -126 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -125 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 +102 | 7.5 -124 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -125 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Tampa Bay Rays | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 50.5% | 50.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Markets average | 49.5% | 50.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.