Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners

All Tampa Bay Rays predictions · All Seattle Mariners predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 4-1

The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 50.0%
Books consensus 50.0%
Result Tampa Bay Rays won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Tampa Bay RaysSeattle Mariners
BetMGM -110 -110
BetRivers -105 -109
DraftKings -104 -104
ESPN BET -110 -110
Fanatics -105 -115
FanDuel -102 -106
Hard Rock Bet -105 -105
Caesars -107 -103

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Tampa Bay RaysSeattle Mariners
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 50.0% 50.0%
Best book price incl. vig 50.5% 50.7%
Kalshi contract price 49.5% 50.5%
Polymarket contract price 49.5% 50.5%
Markets average 49.5% 50.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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