Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds
MLB · Tuesday, July 7, 2026 · 7:10 PM · Final: 4-1
The model's call
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Model confidence 60.4%
Books consensus 60.4%
Result Philadelphia Phillies won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -170 | +140 |
| BetRivers | -177 | +143 |
| DraftKings | -168 | +139 |
| ESPN BET | -175 | +150 |
| Fanatics | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -168 | +142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -175 | +145 |
| Caesars | -170 | +143 |
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