Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics

All Tampa Bay Rays predictions · All Athletics predictions

MLB · Monday, August 10, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 10-6

The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 59.4%
Books consensus 59.4%
Result Tampa Bay Rays won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Tampa Bay RaysAthletics
BetMGM -160 +135
BetRivers -152 +133
DraftKings -158 +147
ESPN BET -155 +135
Fanatics -165 +135
FanDuel -154 +142
Hard Rock Bet -155 +145
Caesars -159 +149

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rays −1.5
priced 47.9% to cover · 8 books
Tampa Bay Rays covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 10
priced 49.8% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
Over 10 (16 scored)
Spread by book RaysAthletics
BetMGM −1.5 -102 +1.5 -118
BetRivers −1.5 +100 +1.5 -121
DraftKings −1.5 -103 +1.5 -117
ESPN BET −1.5 +100 +1.5 -120
Fanatics −1.5 -105 +1.5 -115
FanDuel −1.5 +100 +1.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +105 +1.5 -115
Caesars −1.5 +100 +1.5 -120
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 10 -105 10 -115
BetRivers 10 -108 10 -110
DraftKings 10 -106 10 -114
ESPN BET 9.5 -125 9.5 +105
Fanatics 10 -110 10 -110
FanDuel 9.5 -122 9.5 +100
Hard Rock Bet 9.5 -120 9.5 +110
Caesars 10 -110 10 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Tampa Bay RaysAthletics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 59.4% 40.6%
Best book price incl. vig 60.3% 40.2%
Kalshi contract price 60.5% 39.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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