Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics

MLB · Monday, August 10, 2026 · 9:41 PM

The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 58.3%
Books consensus 58.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Tampa Bay RaysAthletics
BetMGM -160 +135
BetRivers -155 +130
DraftKings -156 +129
ESPN BET -150 +130
FanDuel -154 +130
Hard Rock Bet -150 +140
Caesars -145 +135

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Tampa Bay RaysAthletics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 58.3% 41.7%
Best book price incl. vig 59.2% 41.7%
Kalshi contract price 59.5% 40.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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