Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics

All Tampa Bay Rays predictions · All Athletics predictions

MLB · Monday, August 10, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 10-6

The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 59.4%
Books consensus 59.4%
Result Tampa Bay Rays won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Tampa Bay RaysAthletics
BetMGM -160 +135
BetRivers -152 +133
DraftKings -158 +147
ESPN BET -155 +135
Fanatics -165 +135
FanDuel -154 +142
Hard Rock Bet -155 +145
Caesars -159 +149

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Tampa Bay RaysAthletics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 59.4% 40.6%
Best book price incl. vig 60.3% 40.2%
Kalshi contract price 60.5% 39.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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