Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees

All Seattle Mariners predictions · All New York Yankees predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 1-4

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 55.4%
Books consensus 55.4%
Result New York Yankees won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Seattle MarinersNew York Yankees
BetMGM +115 -140
BetRivers +118 -134
DraftKings +120 -129
ESPN BET +115 -135
Fanatics +110 -130
FanDuel +116 -126
Hard Rock Bet +120 -130
Caesars +120 -130

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Seattle MarinersNew York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 44.6% 55.4%
Best book price incl. vig 45.5% 55.8%
Kalshi contract price 44.5% 55.5%
Polymarket contract price 44.5% 55.5%
Markets average 44.5% 55.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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