Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros
MLB · Saturday, July 4, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 8-10
The model's call
Houston Astros to win
Model confidence 51.4%
Books consensus 51.4%
Result Houston Astros won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Tampa Bay Rays | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -102 | -118 |
| BetRivers | -103 | -122 |
| DraftKings | -102 | -118 |
| ESPN BET | -105 | -115 |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | -104 | -112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |
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