Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics

All Tampa Bay Rays predictions · All Athletics predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 12-4

The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 63.8%
Books consensus 63.8%
Result Tampa Bay Rays won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Tampa Bay RaysAthletics
BetMGM -200 +165
BetRivers -182 +160
DraftKings -182 +169
ESPN BET -195 +165
Fanatics -200 +165
FanDuel -184 +168
Hard Rock Bet -185 +175
Caesars -195 +175

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Tampa Bay RaysAthletics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 63.8% 36.2%
Best book price incl. vig 64.5% 36.4%
Kalshi contract price 64.5% 35.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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