Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals

All Chicago Cubs predictions · All Washington Nationals predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 6:46 PM · Final: 8-6

The model's call
Chicago Cubs to win
Model confidence 62.2%
Books consensus 62.2%
Result Chicago Cubs won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Chicago CubsWashington Nationals
BetMGM -185 +150
BetRivers -190 +155
DraftKings -167 +155
ESPN BET -185 +155
Fanatics -180 +150
FanDuel -178 +162
Hard Rock Bet -170 +160
Caesars -177 +162

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Chicago CubsWashington Nationals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 62.2% 37.8%
Best book price incl. vig 62.5% 38.2%
Kalshi contract price 62.5% 37.5%
Polymarket contract price 62.5% 37.5%
Markets average 62.5% 37.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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