Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees

All Seattle Mariners predictions · All New York Yankees predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 5-10

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 55.3%
Books consensus 55.3%
Result New York Yankees won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Seattle MarinersNew York Yankees
BetMGM +110 -135
BetRivers +116 -132
DraftKings +120 -129
ESPN BET +115 -135
Fanatics +115 -140
FanDuel +120 -128
Hard Rock Bet +120 -130
Caesars +120 -130

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Seattle MarinersNew York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 44.7% 55.3%
Best book price incl. vig 45.5% 56.1%
Kalshi contract price 44.1% 55.9%
Polymarket contract price 44.5% 55.5%
Markets average 44.3% 55.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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