Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics
MLB · Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · 3:06 PM
The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 65.8%
Books consensus 65.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Tampa Bay Rays | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -220 | +180 |
| BetRivers | -215 | +175 |
| DraftKings | -206 | +191 |
| ESPN BET | -215 | +180 |
| Fanatics | -220 | +180 |
| FanDuel | -205 | +186 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -200 | +190 |
| Caesars | -210 | +190 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Tampa Bay Rays | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 66.7% | 34.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 67.2% | 32.8% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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