Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics

All Tampa Bay Rays predictions · All Athletics predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · 3:06 PM · Final: 8-4

The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 67.3%
Books consensus 67.3%
Result Tampa Bay Rays won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Tampa Bay RaysAthletics
BetMGM -225 +185
BetRivers -225 +180
DraftKings -222 +205
ESPN BET -230 +195
Fanatics -235 +190
FanDuel -225 +200
Hard Rock Bet -220 +210
Caesars -220 +200

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rays −1.5
priced 56.0% to cover · 4 books, 4 on another number
Tampa Bay Rays covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 9
priced 51.1% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 9.5
Over 9 (12 scored)
Spread by book RaysAthletics
BetMGM −2.5 +110 +2.5 -135
BetRivers −2 -110 +2 -110
DraftKings −1.5 -143 +1.5 +119
ESPN BET −2.5 +110 +2.5 -130
Fanatics −1.5 -140 +1.5 +115
FanDuel −1.5 -140 +1.5 +116
Hard Rock Bet −2.5 +115 +2.5 -125
Caesars −1.5 -150 +1.5 +126
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 9 -125 9 +105
BetRivers 9 -129 9 -112
DraftKings 9 -113 9 -107
ESPN BET 9.5 +100 9.5 -120
Fanatics 9 -115 9 -105
FanDuel 9.5 +102 9.5 -124
Hard Rock Bet 9.5 +110 9.5 -120
Caesars 9 -115 9 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Tampa Bay RaysAthletics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 67.3% 32.7%
Best book price incl. vig 68.8% 32.3%
Kalshi contract price 68.5% 31.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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