Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics

All Tampa Bay Rays predictions · All Athletics predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · 3:06 PM · Final: 8-4

The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 67.3%
Books consensus 67.3%
Result Tampa Bay Rays won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Tampa Bay RaysAthletics
BetMGM -225 +185
BetRivers -225 +180
DraftKings -222 +205
ESPN BET -230 +195
Fanatics -235 +190
FanDuel -225 +200
Hard Rock Bet -220 +210
Caesars -220 +200

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Tampa Bay RaysAthletics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 67.3% 32.7%
Best book price incl. vig 68.8% 32.3%
Kalshi contract price 68.5% 31.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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