Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees

All Seattle Mariners predictions · All New York Yankees predictions

MLB · Thursday, August 13, 2026 · 1:38 PM · Final: 1-0

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 59.5%
Books consensus 59.5%
Result Seattle Mariners won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Seattle MarinersNew York Yankees
BetMGM +135 -160
BetRivers +138 -167
DraftKings +146 -157
ESPN BET +137 -155
Fanatics +135 -165
FanDuel +140 -150
Hard Rock Bet +145 -155
Caesars +143 -153

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Seattle MarinersNew York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 40.5% 59.5%
Best book price incl. vig 40.7% 60.0%
Kalshi contract price 40.1% 59.9%
Polymarket contract price 40.5% 59.5%
Markets average 40.3% 59.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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