Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates

All Boston Red Sox predictions · All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions

MLB · Friday, August 14, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 4-8

The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Result Pittsburgh Pirates won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Boston Red SoxPittsburgh Pirates
BetMGM -118 -102
BetRivers -122 +102
DraftKings -113 +105
ESPN BET -120 +100
Fanatics -120 +100
FanDuel -116 +106
Hard Rock Bet -115 +105
Caesars -115 +105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Boston Red SoxPittsburgh Pirates
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 52.2% 47.8%
Best book price incl. vig 53.1% 48.5%
Kalshi contract price 52.5% 47.5%
Polymarket contract price 52.5% 47.5%
Markets average 52.5% 47.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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