Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
MLB · Friday, August 21, 2026 · 7:16 PM
The model's call
Baltimore Orioles to win
Model confidence 54.4%
Books consensus 54.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Tampa Bay Rays | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| ESPN BET | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +118 | -138 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +115 | -125 |
| Caesars | +115 | -125 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Tampa Bay Rays | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 45.9% | 55.6% |
| Kalshi contract price | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 46.2% | 53.8% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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