Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Athletics at Houston Astros

All Athletics predictions · All Houston Astros predictions

MLB · Friday, August 21, 2026 · 8:11 PM · Final: 0-4

The model's call
Houston Astros to win
Model confidence 62.6%
Books consensus 62.6%
Result Houston Astros won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book AthleticsHouston Astros
BetMGM +154 -190
BetRivers +160 -195
DraftKings +163 -176
ESPN BET +160 -190
Fanatics +150 -180
FanDuel +162 -174
Hard Rock Bet +165 -175
Caesars +162 -177

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue AthleticsHouston Astros
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 37.4% 62.6%
Best book price incl. vig 37.7% 63.5%
Kalshi contract price 37.5% 62.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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