Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners

All Philadelphia Phillies predictions · All Seattle Mariners predictions

MLB · Monday, August 24, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 2-9

The model's call
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Result Seattle Mariners won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Philadelphia PhilliesSeattle Mariners
BetMGM -120 +100
BetRivers -117 +102
DraftKings -114 +106
ESPN BET -115 +102
Fanatics -120 +100
FanDuel -114 +104
Hard Rock Bet -115 +105
Caesars -117 +106

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Philadelphia PhilliesSeattle Mariners
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 52.2% 47.8%
Best book price incl. vig 53.3% 48.5%
Kalshi contract price 52.5% 47.5%
Polymarket contract price 52.5% 47.5%
Markets average 52.5% 47.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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