Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Houston Astros at New York Yankees

All Houston Astros predictions · All New York Yankees predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 25, 2026 · 7:10 PM · Final: 9-7

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 57.2%
Books consensus 57.2%
Result Houston Astros won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Houston AstrosNew York Yankees
BetMGM +125 -150
BetRivers +125 -141
DraftKings +127 -137
ESPN BET +126 -142
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +128 -138
Hard Rock Bet +130 -140
Caesars +130 -140

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Houston AstrosNew York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.8% 57.2%
Best book price incl. vig 43.5% 57.8%
Kalshi contract price 42.5% 57.5%
Polymarket contract price 42.5% 57.5%
Markets average 42.5% 57.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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