Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners

All Philadelphia Phillies predictions · All Seattle Mariners predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 25, 2026 · 9:42 PM · Final: 1-4

The model's call
Seattle Mariners to win
Model confidence 51.4%
Books consensus 51.4%
Result Seattle Mariners won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Philadelphia PhilliesSeattle Mariners
BetMGM -102 -118
BetRivers +100 -114
DraftKings +101 -108
ESPN BET -102 -111
Fanatics -105 -115
FanDuel +102 -112
Hard Rock Bet +100 -110
Caesars +105 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Philadelphia PhilliesSeattle Mariners
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 48.6% 51.4%
Best book price incl. vig 48.8% 51.9%
Kalshi contract price 48.5% 51.5%
Polymarket contract price 48.5% 51.5%
Markets average 48.5% 51.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record